Report Compiled: 2020-05-06

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: f7d8d01 Max Data Date: 2020-05-05

NYT Repo Commit: cdce954 Max Data Date: 2020-05-05

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-16 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 499.5330 771.4519 1398.0359
2020-06-16 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 515.2859 940.1433 1774.7196
2020-06-16 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 954.3706 1531.2253 2710.0249
2020-06-16 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 640.1622 1348.1828 4106.5808
2020-06-16 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 359.1838 779.3336 3435.0387
2020-06-16 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 685.4353 1765.5332 5682.6261
2020-06-16 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 678.7394 1855.1932 3639.3599
2020-06-16 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 696.4276 2051.1283 8954.3044
2020-06-16 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 390.8236 648.7779 1206.2708
2020-06-16 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 484.8752 946.8396 1935.7443
2020-06-16 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 842.6803 1462.7844 2823.7112
2020-06-16 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 689.5898 1595.9520 5460.0298
2020-06-16 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 319.4840 462.5071 880.9936
2020-06-16 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 364.0513 511.2072 938.8136
2020-06-16 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 665.2231 1149.2024 2388.1638
2020-06-16 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 419.0134 878.0536 3240.9593
2020-05-20 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 258.9972 377.2466 535.7569
2020-05-20 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 318.1642 410.0152 589.3246
2020-05-20 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 309.4861 408.1469 570.3518
2020-05-20 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 305.9612 444.0239 611.3867